Amid Record Stock Prices, Fed Policy Is A Risk

• 
• 

Stocks closed at an all-time high again on Friday and the latest economic data — though it shows growth is slowing — indicates no recession is on the horizon. The Federal Reserve Board's inflation policy is perhaps the biggest risk to the 10-year old expansion.

Today's jobs report was much stronger than expected. Unemployment remained at a low in June last seen a half century ago. The latest monthly survey of 60 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal showed that the professionals are not expecting a recession. The monthly surveys of purchasing managers at manufacturing as well as non-manufacturing companies reported less robust business conditions but continued growth.

However, the Federal Reserve Board's June 19th economic forecast was unrelenting in its forecast for inflation of 2%. This chart compiled by independent economist Fritz Meyer, which we license, shows a 2% compound annual growth rate of inflation trendline in blue, which is what the Fed has been calling for nine years. The Fed's forecast for 2% inflation was correct in 2011 and 2012 but has been off year after year since 2013. The actual inflation rate has been much closer to 1.5% for five years and the Fed's June 19th policy statement continued to insist that this is transitory. On December 19th, 2018, when the Fed raised rates and tightened credit based on its inflation model, it caused a flash bear market in stocks, chilled holiday retail sales, and caused jitters about the future of the expansion. Since all recessions since 1954 were caused by a Fed mistake, the Fed's inflation policy will be key to a continued expansion.

After breaking its record all-time closing high on Wednesday of 2,995.82, the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index closed fractionally lower on Friday at 2,990.41.

---

This article was written by a veteran financial journalist based on data compiled and analyzed by independent economist, Fritz Meyer. While these are sources we believe to be reliable, the information is not intended to be used as financial or tax advice without consulting a professional about your personal situation. Tax laws are subject to change. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Investments with higher return potential carry greater risk for loss. No one can predict the future of the stock market or any investment, and past performance is never a guarantee of your future results.

This article was written by a veteran financial journalist based on data compiled and analyzed by independent economist, Fritz Meyer. While these are sources we believe to be reliable, the information is not intended to be used as financial advice without consulting a professional about your personal situation.

Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Investments with higher return potential carry greater risk for loss. Past performance is not an indicator of your future results.

2019

• Find The Major Economic Trend Hidden In This Picture
• Is The New Record High In Stocks Irrational?
• Stocks Break New Record; Economic Outlook Clears
• Despite Frights, Can The Expansion Continue?
• Retail Sales Coverage Reflected The Narrow View Of The Media
• Small-Business Optimism Declines But Remains High
• Analysis Of New Employment, Manufacturing & Service Economy Data
• Quarter Ends Well Despite Trade War, Inverted Yield Curve & Political Crisis
• No Recession But A Slower Pace Of Growth
• Fickle Financial Headlines Brighten
• Economy Gets Bad Press Again
• Europe's Growth Problem And Your Portfolio

• Stocks Dropped 2.6% On Friday, As Reality Gap Seemed To Widen
• A Prudent Perspective On Recent Volatility
• A Tale Of Two Economies
• Amid Worries, New Equity Risk Premium Data Explained
• GDP Rose More Than Expected; Stocks Top Record Again
• Slower Growth Confirmed By June Leading Economic Indicators
• Stocks Closed At A Record High; Should You Worry?
• Amid Record Stock Prices, Fed Policy Is A Risk
• Uncle Sam Delivers A Strong Economy
• A Dramatic Pause, As Expansion Breaks Longevity Record
• The Explosion In Real Retail Sales You Never Hear About
• Amid Signs Of Weakness, Fed Reverses Course; Stocks Rally

2018

• 'Twas The Last Trading Day Before Christmas
• Stock Plunge Nears Bear Territory After Fed Hike
• A Last-Minute Reminder To Give Wisely And Charitably
• Key Facts About Tariffs, Interest Rates, And Economic Strength
• Fed Chair Extends A Dovish Hand, Lifting Stocks
• S&P 500 Slid Last Week, As Earnings Growth Is Recalibrated
• Last Chance For Pre-Retired Professionals & Biz Owners
• Amid A Swirl Of Controversy, Fed Policy Remained Stable
• More Good Economic News On Friday
• Is Amazon Keeping The Inflation Rate Low?
• Analyzing The Market Correction
• This Week In Stocks And The Economy

• Analyzing The Risk Of Stocks After The 6.9% Drop
• Fed Chair: "We Remain In Extraordinary Times."
• With The S&P 500 Up 7.2% In 3Q18, What's Driving Stocks?
• Widespread Misinformation Follows Household Median Income Report
• Investment Wisdom At A Poignant Moment In History
• Good Economic Surprises Happening Now
• Economic Facts To Prepare For The Elections
• Another Member Of Music Royalty Dies With No Will
• Top 10 Indications The Economic Outlook Is Brighter Than Expected
• Wealth And Economic News This Week (2-Minute Read)
• 10 Things: New Education Tax Breaks For A Child Or Grandchild
• The Truth About U.S. GDP Growth

2017

• 2017 Ends With S&P 500 Total Return Of 21.8%
• President Signs Historic Tax Cuts And Jobs Act; Stocks Drop A Fraction
• Good News On The Economy And A Tax Alert
• Tax Bill Drives Another Stock Market Record And Gives You To-Dos By Year-End
• An Eventful Week In Wealth Management
• Leading Economic Indicators Surge, Stocks Break Record High Again
• News Affecting Your Wealth Dominated The Headlines This Past Week
• U.S. GDP Growth Surprise Propels Stocks To New Record
• Why Does The S&P 500 Keep Breaking Records?
• U.S. Stocks Nearly Doubled In The Last Five Years
• The Big Economic News The Media Keeps Missing
• Trump Tax Plan Upends Year-End Tax Planning

• Key Senators Agree On A Road To Cutting Taxes This Year
• Year-End Tax Planning Could End With A Thrill This Year
• This Week's News About Wealth Management
• Stocks Dropped For Second Straight Week Amid Strengthening Economic Reports
• With Stocks Near All-Time High, Personal Income And Employment Data Are Released
• How Strategic Asset Allocation And Rebalancing Worked In The 12 Months Ended June 30
• Wall Street's "Top" Strategists' Recommendations Are Like Monkeys Throwing Darts
• Stronger Than Expected Jobs Creation But CNBC Reports "Trouble Lurked"
• S&P 500 Returned 2.9% In 2nd Quarter And 9.2% In First Half Of 2017
• Despite Distractions, Demographics Are Poised To Drive U.S. Long-Term Growth
• The Federal Reserve's Historic Economic Experiment Entered A New Phase
• Despite The Washington Sideshow, Stocks Closed At A New All-Time High

2016

• Visualizing The Risk Of Running Out Of Money In Retirement
• Wall Street's Strategists About As Good As Monkeys Throwing Darts
• Stocks Surge 2% Friday But Why Are They So Volatile Lately?

2015

• Despite A Lackluster Black Friday, Economic Fundamentals Look Good